This Week; over the weekend it appears there is a deal to avoid a debt default. Congressional leaders and the President came to a compromise as by know everyone is aware of. What isn’t clear yet is will the deal make it through the House after members actually see the plan that early this morning hasn’t been seen by most members in the House or Senate. The stock market will open better this morning on the news but the bond market isn’t likely to buckle much. So far there has been nothing from the rating agencies whether the deal is sufficient to avoid a downgrade of US credit rating.
Once the borrowing limit is increased markets can move back to focusing the economy. Today at 10:00 the July ISM manufacturing index and this afternoon auto and truck sales for July. This is employment week with July employment data on Friday. Expect continued uncertainty and potential market volatility this week as investors sift over the debt ceiling details. Prices of bonds and mortgages will continue to hold a bullish bias given the economic weakness and high unemployment. Whether we can hold the 10 yr at 2.75% area is not clear; it will take a few days for the entire agreed upon plan to be digested.