In an attempt to reassess the market for some of @thecoregroup’s more luxurious listings we are representing, I have studied the market as a whole to see what is actually selling with the following criteria:
- List price is over $500,000.00
- Property is over 4,000 sq ft
- The property is a waterfront property
I’ve searched both Seminole County & Orange County separately, so I will break them down below. The factors that I find to be important are the competition (or the current inventory), the average time on market (ADOM) of properties that have sold.
In this first graph you can see the running total of listings and sales in Seminole County that fit the above criteria for the last 6 months. Notice that an average of ONE of the average FOURTY available listings are closing on a monthly basis.
This graph speaks to the Average Days on Market (ADOM) of sold properties which is a poor reflection of the market due to limited sales. The other line in this graph represents the Sale Price vs. the Original List Price. It appears that the properties that sold in a relatively quick amount of time sold for a higher SP/Orig LP % while the homes that were on for significantly longer sold for a lower amount meaning they likely made pricing adjustments throughout their time on the market.
The average price per square foot is a difficult graph to truly understand, but I’m including it because it is commonly used as a rule of thumb for property assessment. The issue that properties like the ones we are talking about have feature differences and lot differences that make this a tough assessment. For instance, the best lot in town with a 4,000 sq ft home will likely sell at a higher price per sq ft than the worst lot in town with a 10,000 sq ft home. So, there is not a direct comparison that can be made.
You can see the same graphs represented above in the below slide show for Orange County as well.
THE GOOD NEWS!
The Greater Orlando Market Inventory (all properties) is at a 3 year LOW! This is good and bad (in my opinion). They are calling this a “seller’s market” but there are limitations on that…. Market Value and the role that appraisals are playing in keeping our sales prices suppressed. We also are experiences short term month to month gains which are being reported as market improvement which may prove to be just a momentary celebration. This is a discussion for another day, but the good side of this graphic is that sellers are able to quickly assess their market value based on the market reaction. One of 2 things happen when a new property is listed:
- An offer to purchase is received quickly, or
- No offers are received
This sounds so basic but the lack of competition in the market place allows for a quick read on the market value.
This discussion could go on further and will continue to change throughout 2013. My summary based on all of the above information is that we are in a good place in the real estate market at the moment, while luxury markets are left in the balance because of some amount of buyer uncertainty as well as a much smaller pool of buyers for luxury properties. This will take time to improve and I will be very interested to see the numbers for January when they come out in a couple weeks.
Thanks for reading…