Three quarters of the metropolitan areas of the country are waiting for housing prices to stabilize in the fall, but Orlando is not among them, according to a study published on Tuesday, Fiserv Inc. Fiserv and Moody’s Analytics has reported that house prices have stabilized in a single family of four U.S. urban center. Although housing stabilization is sweeping the nation, Orlando home prices are expected to fall by 14 percent in the third quarter from last year’s third quarter to this year.
“We’re only a year and a half away from where prices stabilize in Orlando,” Fiserv chief economist David Stiff said. “Distress sellers — the banks, primarily — have a certain urgency to sell their properties, and that’s created a lot of downward pressure.”
The financial services company finds the foreclosure rate of a local area and unemployment, among other factors to come with his market forecasts. Orlando is not alone in Florida in the form of a late recovery in housing, according to the report of Fiserv, based on the Fiserv Case-Shiller index. Of the states 21 urban areas, eight are expected to see house prices continue to fall in the third quarter of 2012. The largest two-year dropoff in the state is expected to occur in the Miami metropolitan division — Miami-Dade County, essentially. Fiserv analysts predict prices there will fall another 15 percent between the third quarter of 2010 and third quarter of 2011, followed by another 10 percent drop the following year.
The three regions that should register the largest increases in home prices during this period is Ocala (Marion County, primarily), Palm Bay-Melbourne (Brevard County) and Palm Coast (Flagler County). The report showed that these suburban areas will increase by 10 to 11 percent into the third quarter of 2012. By analyzing price fluctuations that affected 375 of the nation’s metropolitan areas in search of Fiserv found that most peaked in 2006 with Orlando in the lead in the second quarter of this year. Data on wholesale prices prepared by the Orlando Regional Realtor Association and on the basis of transactions of its members to tip the average price in Orlando’s main market (mainly Orange and Seminole counties) one year before Fiserv estimates in July 2007.
The biggest annual decline in prices in the Orlando metropolitan area occurred in 2009 when the median price of single-family homes fell more than 30 percent.
Moral of the story: If you must sell, get it sold now or be ready to sit on the side lines for at least 3 years. You will make more today than you will a week from now. If you are looking to buy, the fruit is ripening up, rates are still low. It’s time to begin looking.